< Previousthe insurers who cover the risk of the operation will need to see that pilot skill and experience requirements are reduced.” LOWERING THE BOOM Several commercial supersonic aircraft programs are on the drawing boards in the US, Japan and Russia, and some of the initiatives are transitioning to a flight demonstration phase. Spike Aerospace (Boston, Massachusetts) flew an unmanned subscale version of their S-512 supersonic design in 2017. Denver, Colorado-based Boom Supersonic’s two-crew, one-third scale XB-1 “Baby Boom” demonstrator is scheduled to fly sometime of this year. Aerion (Reno, Nevada), which has worked with Airbus, General Electric and Lockheed Martin, plans to proceed directly to full-size pre-production AS2 aircraft. All three programs are targeting flight testing and initial production aircraft deliveries in the 2021-2025 timeframe. To get there, the contenders not only need to design for Mach 1.2 to 2.2 speeds, they must address challenges of fuel efficiency, carbon dioxide emissions, noise levels on takeoff and landing, and the ultimate dilemma, sonic booms. Even so, they may not be allowed to overfly the US because of a FAA ban on flights exceeding Mach 1 – implemented 46 years ago in 1973. The FAA is collaborating with International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) technical working groups on recommended standards for noise and emissions, Mach cut-off (flight conditions in which sonic booms do not reach the ground’s surface) and “low boom.” Dan Nale, Gulfstream senior vice president of programs, engineering and test, believes flying a supersonic business jet will be “very similar” to flying a subsonic jet. “Modern flight controls and fly-by-wire systems do an excellent job of compensating for the aerodynamic effects of transonic and supersonic flight. Where supersonic pilots are most likely to feel the effects of speed is on their displays. Distances will shrink at a surprising rate, airborne traffic will be quickly overtaken, and pilots will have to carefully plan their arrivals and descents to effectively transition from high and fast to the terminal environment.” This article is reprinted and adapted by permission of Civil Aviation Training (CAT) magazine, Halldale Group. Rick Adams, Editor of ICAO Journal, is a Fellow of the Royal Aeronautical Society (FRAeS). “ Supersonic aircraft contenders not only need to design for Mach 1.2 to 2.2 speeds, they must address challenges of fuel efficiency, carbon dioxide emissions, noise levels on takeoff and landing, and the ultimate dilemma, sonic booms. ” TRANS-OCEAN “COMMUTING” AT HYPERSONIC SPEEDS Mach 5. 4000 miles per hour. New York to London in two hours. Tokyo to Los Angeles in three. Sydney to London, which currently takes 22-24 hours with one stop, could be reduced to only five hours. Kevin Bowcutt, Boeing’s senior technical fellow and chief scientist of hypersonics, said, “We’re excited about the potential of hypersonic technology to connect the world faster than ever before. This aircraft would allow you to fly across the ocean and back in one day, which is all most people would want.” The proposed airplane concept would be larger than a business jet but smaller than a 737, ie between 20 and 100 passengers. Passengers and crew would experience a “G-force feeling” for about 12 minutes as the plane accelerates to cruising speed, and the views at the 95,000-foot cruise level (two times higher than the average airliner today) would feature the earth’s curvature at the horizon. Boeing estimates a prototype could be ready in 5-10 years and a production aircraft – including autonomous piloting – in 20 to 30 years. Still conceptual and decades away from being built, Boeing has stirred excitement with its hypersonic aircraft announcement. 18 | ICAO JOURNAL | ISSUE 1 | 2019 FUTURE FLIGHTSDaedalean, a 22-person startup in Zurich, Switzerland which is developing autonomous guidance, navigation and control software for small electric personal aircraft. “These electric vehicles are much simpler than aircraft with combustion engines. And because they’re simpler, they can be cheaper, they can be quieter, they can be safer. There’s no reason a Lilium or Volocopter should cost more than a Tesla Model S. And there’s no reason you shouldn’t be able to sell 50,000 of them,” Van Dijk explained. The Daedalean leader, a physicist, has worked at Google and SpaceX (designing spacecraft flight control software), and several years ago led a project designing an autonomous ocean-going sailboat at ETH, Switzerland’s technical university which has produced 21 Nobel Prize winners (including Albert Einstein). Van Dijk said there are “five or six groups” in Zurich “that are at the forefront in robotics and autonomy, flying control theory, deep learning.” In 2016 he founded Daedalean. “I wanted to do the most interesting startup I could possibly think of. The startup scene was clearly lacking in ambition, in my view. Startups go for acquisition really early and when they get bought the talented students are shipped off, never to be heard from again. I thought that was a massive waste of opportunity. When hiring you have to compete with big companies that pay very comfortable salaries. So you can only lure people if you have something that is obviously more interesting.” Daedalean has spoken with 30 to 35 of the electrical vertical take off and landing (eVTOL) developers. “Some people really know what they’re doing and they’re on a good track and they’re going to be on the market by 2021 – this is the median number being thrown around. Full autonomy is on everybody’s list.” “We start with everything a human pilot does, then we will try to build systems that can outperform a human in every way. So to speak, a drop-in replacement for a human pilot,” described Van Dijk. “Not in the form of an R2D2 that sits in the copilot seat and has a robot arm control of the stick. Electric VTOLs are already fly-by-wire; the primary flight control computer already has sufficient control over the attitude, altitude, trajectory, etc. to fly reliably from A to B.” The first part of the system that Daedalean is focused on – the Visual (X) – is designed to replace the eyes and the visual cortex of the pilot “to see where we are and what we’re looking at. We’re doing that for the ICAO-defined categories and we’re training neural networks to recognize them.” Systems using simultaneous location and mapping (SLAM) apply the parallax of onboard cameras “to solve the equations that tell you where you are in space and where all the other things are … more accurate than a GPS.” Van Dijk noted that software for safety- critical applications in aerospace must meet such standards as DO-178C (Software Considerations in Airborne Systems and Equipment Certification), DO-254 (Design Assurance Guidance for Airborne Electronic Hardware) and DO- 160 (Environmental Conditions and Test Procedures for Airborne Equipment). He said, “We have to convince EASA and the FAA that neural networks are safe enough. We also have to help develop the means of compliance to demonstrate the thing. We intend to be able to demonstrate safety in the way that the authorities are accustomed to, so we need not ask for special exceptions because that will never fly. Fortunately, they are moving to performance-based metrics rather than proscribing how it should be done; the winds seem to be even more friendly.” About 100 companies, large and small, are racing to develop certifiable airframes that can handle up to six passengers; some think they will be flying by 2021, most by about 2025, and there are predictions of thousands of such “flying cars” serving as on-demand air taxis, landing at “vertiports” atop tall buildings in megacities around the world. “If you’re going to do anything interesting with this as a large volume, you’re going to have to get rid of the pilot license,” Dr Luuk van Dijk told ICAO Journal. For flying cars to be economically viable to build, he estimates 1500-1700 flight hours per year per aircraft. And since there’s already a shortage of licensed commercial airline pilots (and flight instructors), “You won’t have enough CPLs that want to be a taxi driver.” Van Dijk is the Founder and CEO of IS THERE AN AUTONOMOUS FLYING CAR IN YOUR FUTURE? FLYING CARS Swiss startup Daedalean has recruited experts in robotics, mechanical engineering, computer vision, artificial intelligence and avionics. (And rescue dog, Daila.) www.ICAO.int | 19 FLYING CARSThe new ICAO75 website was launched in January this year, commemorating the Organization’s 75 th year by providing both a look back and a look ahead toward some of the incredible innovations now poised to revolutionize the world of air transport. The Future Aviation portal of the ICAO75 site has been developed in response to the focus on innovation-related challenges and opportunities initiated at the ICAO Council’s off-site strategy meeting in 2018, and has been designed and populated with the assistance of future aviation thought leader Charles Bombardier who is currently consulting with the Next Generation Aviation To commemorate ICAO’s 75 th Anniversary in 2019, a new website has been established to celebrate civil aviation’s storied past and exciting future, and to host the portals for three new aviation Innovation Competitions aimed at spurring the interest and enthusiasm of global youth and young adults. Taking advantage of the momentum toward highlighting the importance of aviation innovation to address future air transport challenges, initiated by the ICAO Council at its latest Off-site Strategy Meeting (see full review page 6), the new Innovation Competitions are the first of several major innovation-related initiatives being pursued by ICAO this year, all of which will culminate in an innovation-focused World Aviation Forum and Technology Fair to be held just in advance of the 40th Triennial ICAO Assembly this September. Just a few of the prototypes to be found in the Charles Bombardier gallery on ICAO’s Future Aviation website, available at: www.icao.int/icao75 20 | ICAO JOURNAL | ISSUE 1 | 2019 75TH ANNIVERSARY INNOVATION FOCUSProfessionals (NGAP) programme under ICAO’s Air Navigation Bureau. The Future Aviation site features a new aircraft prototype gallery curated by Bombardier, in addition to a series of portals focused on frontier technologies and the future of aviation, the role ICAO will play in supporting and accelerating the implementation of new aviation technologies and operations, and an innovation start-up kit which provides helpful advice to aviation innovators respective of every step required to bring a new idea to market. The last portal on the Future Aviation site is devoted to three competitions being pursued in ICAO Member States through June of 2019, with the assistance and support of their Civil Aviation Authorities (CAAs). INNOVATION COMPETITIONS TO SPUR INTEREST AND ENTHUSIASM OF WORLD YOUTH Recognizing that everything begins with an idea, and that some of the best ideas come from the youngest imaginations, the first of these three competitions is encouraging world youth ages 6-12 to submit ideas for new aircraft types and how these can improve or expand upon the way that powered flight serves humanity today. Submissions for piloted or unmanned aircraft of any size or shape are being welcomed, with virtually no limit to what contestants can propose that can be used for in our skies or outer space. The second competition is seeking similar but more mature and developed concepts from youth ages 13-17, while the third completion requires a submission from young adults aged 18-and-over of maturely thought-out 3D renderings of either new aircraft types or operations designs. In addition to the proposals submitted for the prototype competition, ICAO is also seeking a business case summary of 500 words or less which describes why the proposed technology or operation should attract investment, and how it be cost- effectively produced and implemented to improve people’s lives. ICAO INNOVATION FAIR AND WORLD AVIATION FORUM The winners of the three innovation competitions will be announced just prior to the 40th ICAO Assembly (A40 – 24 September through 4 October) at the special edition of ICAO’s World Aviation Forum (IWAF/5 – 23 September) which will be focused on innovation for 2019. IWAF/5 will be complemented by an Innovation Trade Fair (22-23 September) which will feature a range of new aircraft and technologies which will be challenging many longstanding practices and expectations in the coming decades of how air transport can serve individuals, societies and businesses, and ICAO Member States and industry innovators are being encouraged to contact ICAO at innovation@icao.int to express their interest in participating. ICAO Council President Dr. Olumuyiwa Benard Aliu has been a main driver of the innovation competitions and exhibition being pursued, and he has also requested that the ICAO Secretariat develop a related event adjacent to A40 timeframe which will help to generate further global interest and excitement in aviation’s future among world youth, consistent with one of the key objectives of ICAO’s NGAP programme. An ICAO State Letter was issued at the end of February bringing the innovation competitions and IWAF/5 Innovation Fair to the attention of ICAO’s Member States, and more information on the A40 youth event is expected later in 2019. www.ICAO.int | 21 75TH ANNIVERSARY INNOVATION FOCUSSelect from our extensive list of ICAO- recognized courses to meet your training needs! FILTER multiple training criteria Fast & easy SEARCH FIND scheduled training sessions worldwide REGISTER online! 1 34 2 VISIT ICAO’S GLOBAL AVIATION TRAINING SEARCH MECHANISM AT: WWW.ICAO.INT/TRAINING BUILD YOUR AVIATION TRAINING INTELLIGENCE ™ MAP YOUR NEEDS TO TRAINING SOLUTIONS BY SEARCHING ICAO’S TRAINING CATALOGUEYou’ll quickly recognize the name Bombardier for the companies which build aircraft, trains and recreational vehicles. Charles is the grandson of Joseph- Armand Bombardier, inventor of the iconic Ski-Doo snowmobile. Charles Bombardier started in the family business at age 16 but left in 2006 to create electric vehicle prototypes. Five years ago, he focused his attention on the “ideation” process, forming a startup called Imaginactive and collaborating with other designers to openly share concepts for cars, motorcycles, planes and boats. The designs are not patented but are rather meant to inspire and attract attention from potential developers. To date, his organization has published more than 300 futuristic concepts. Bombardier has won awards for hypersonic jet concepts, urban mobility, sustainability, and innovative industrial design. He is a member of Mensa Canada and a private seaplane pilot. In September 2018, Bombardier began working as a Senior Advisor to ICAO. “My role is to create bridges between ICAO and innovators throughout the world – tinkerers, students, engineers, industrial designers, scientists, startups, medium and large companies.” “My objective,” he told ICAO Journal, “is to create an inspiring and ever-growing vision revolving around the future of flight.” He is creating conceptual images, 3D models, animations, virtual reality experiences, a website and an annual book that can be used at ICAO events, by secondary schools and universities, and at national science museums. “We keep an open eye for new technologies and imagine ways they could be integrated into civil aviation. My primary role is to inspire kids, teenagers, young adults and working professionals to join the civil aviation industry. We are focusing on the ideation phase of product development – the “fuzzy front end” – and collaborating openly with other innovators to brainstorm, define and conceptualize what’s coming next.” For more information please visit : https://www4.icao.int/futureaviation Charles Bombardier is collaborating with ICAO to inspire the Next Generation of Aviation Professionals FAMOUS NAME, ACTIVE IMAGINATION Three of hundreds of Imaginactive concepts: (left to right) the “Aerostratos,” a regional airship concept, inspired by the Airlander 10, that could transport people and material to locations with limited infrastructure; the “Escatek,” suggested by Bombardier’s wife, Pascale, to enable travellers to pass security and immigration checks in less than a minute; and the “Jetsol,” a recreational vehicle to fly over inconsisent ledding between sentences Images designed by Ashish Thulkar, India. Visionary Charles Bombardier released “The Future of Aviation” book at the ICAO NGAP Global Summit in Shenzhen, China. www.ICAO.int | 23 NEXT GENERATION OF AVIATION PROFESSIONALSThe aircraft are also intended to remain airborne for long periods of time, perhaps up to a year. So their designs are somewhat unconventional and very lightweight. Some, such as the Airbus Zephyr, feature long wingspans and are solar-powered, much like the Solar Impulse II aircraft which circumnavigated the globe. Other High-Altitude Long-Endurance (HALE) aircraft being floated are simple balloons but guided by sophisticated electronics: foremost is from Google’s sister company, Loon. And though these HALE aircraft will operate above traditional airways, at a minimum they must traverse those airways when they ascend and descend, and therefore must be factored into the global air navigation scheme. “The biggest challenge we face is that consistent ‘rules of the road’ do not yet exist in a uniform manner around the world,” David Hansell told ICAO Journal. Hansell is former head of Global Aviation Policy for Facebook, which is partnered on some projects with Airbus; he is now involved with public policy for drone manufacturer DJI. Hansell also chairs the Upper Airspace Working Group (UAWG), an industry organization within the Aerospace Industries Association (AIA), as well as its international partner, I-UAWG. The UAWG is comprised of a diverse group of experts from across the aerospace industry, dealing with the challenges and opportunities of high-altitude airspace. Among the companies involved are Alta Devices, Boeing, GE Aviation, General Atomics, Google, Grumman, Harris Corporation, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, and Rockwell Collins. The working group is developing positions on policies and strategies concerning national and international regulation, legislation, and standards unique to high- altitude unmanned and manned aircraft, spacecraft and other users. For the ICAO Air Navigation Conference in October, the UAWG helped the Secretariat produce a working paper (AN-Conf/13-WP/16) on “Operations Above Flight Level 600.” An innovative new category of aircraft is steadily emerging with the promise of offering lower-cost telecommunications to underserved parts of the world as well as surveillance and monitoring capabilities for commercial and government applications. These new aircraft would operate well above the typical 30- to 40,000- foot level of commercial air carriers and business aircraft – Flight Level 600 (FL600), or 60,000 feet and above – the area known as the “stratosphere,” the second layer of the earth’s atmosphere. HIGH FLIERS High-Altitude Long-Endurance (HALE) Aircraft Are Seeking New Operational Flight Levels “Essentially any payload that can fit within the capacity can be put inside it” (PHASA), according to Martin Topping, delivery director at BAE Systems.” That could be 5G and 6G communications, border surveillance, agriculture and forestry, famine relief – it’s infinite. The vehicle is the carrier – the transit van.” BAE Systems concept. 24 | ICAO JOURNAL | ISSUE 1 | 2019 INNOVATIONRequirements for airworthiness certification, equipage, detect-and-avoid and pilot licensure “will challenge regulators to develop standards on new and rapidly evolving technologies which, more than likely, they’ve never encountered before,” said Hansell. Previously, such altitudes were reserved for supersonic jets such as the Concorde and the U2 and SR71 American spy planes. Hansell noted that “ICAO States have been overwhelmingly supportive of this field for some time.” At the Second Global Air Navigation Industry Symposium (GANIS/2), in December 2017 in Montréal, the aviation community was briefed on the current state of higher airspace operations. At the First Safety and Air Navigation Implementation Symposium (SANIS/1), also December 2017 at ICAO Headquarters, the regulatory and air navigation services provider (ANSP) community that had experience with these types of operations provided information on how such operations were enabled. And the 39th Session of the ICAO Assembly in 2016 had noted that some higher airspace operations initiatives directly supported the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 9 and 17. As the industry moves toward expanding flight trials in 2019 and broader deployments in subsequent years, Hansell said, “We believe it is important for ICAO to develop near-term guidance material which will help States adopt a consistent general approach to accommodating international higher airspace operations. We want to be involved in the conversations and provide States with the data they need to make smart decisions in ensuring aviation safety.” LOITERING ALOFT What are some of the potential benefits of these highly automated, high-flying aircraft? Internet connectivity to unserved or underserved populations around the world. Overhead imagery for environmental monitoring and disaster management (such as wildfires and oil spills). Border and maritime surveillance. Reinforcement of the satellite-based Global Positioning System (GPS), aiding worldwide navigation. In 2017, in the aftermath of Hurricane Maria, Puerto Rico went dark; an estimated 40 percent of mobile telecoms service was out for an entire month. “The routine eventually became get up in the morning, then try to check the news to see how much service has returned to normal,” said Juan Ramirez Lugo, president of the Caribbean division of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). Then came the Loon balloons to the rescue. In partnership with AT&T and T-Mobile, Loon was able to provide basic email and text messaging coverage to nearly the entire geography of the island of Puerto Rico, connecting more than 250,000 unique users. How did Loon do it? They launched a cluster of helium-filled, polyethylene balloons, about 15 by 12 metres when inflated, which are produced by Raven Aerostar. The balloons carry about 10 kilograms of electronics, including radio antennaes and batteries to store solar power for night operations. There’s also a parachute which allows for a controlled descent and landing. Think of the Loon balloons as floating cellular towers. They float 60,000 feet above the earth, and provide service to LTE (Long Term Evolution), i.e. 4G wireless mobile phones. Each balloon can provide internet coverage over 2,000 square miles and stay aloft for months. The tricky part is keeping the balloons over the area where internet connectivity is needed, as the balloons have no navigation equipment nor propulsion to change direction. Rather, the Project Loon team is taking advantage of the air currents in the stratosphere which move in different directions at different altitudes. If a balloon is drifting away from the coverage area, software can trigger a fan which forces air into the balloon, causing it to drop into an air current going the other way. Or remove air, in which case the now-lighter balloon ascends to a more favorable airway. Airbus graphic. The Loon balloon is like a floating telecommunications tower, high above commercial airways and weather events, using wind current data to remain above the desired internet coverage area. www.ICAO.int | 25 INNOVATIONUS company AeroVironment has formed a joint venture with Japanese telecon operator SoftBank to develop solar-powered HAPS aircraft for commercial operations. In 2001, the AeroVironment Helios prototype reached an altitude of 96,863 feet, setting the world- record for sustained horizontal flight by a winged aircraft. Such aircraft are ideally suited for “local persistence,” the ability to stay focused on a specific area of interest (which can be hundreds of miles wide) while providing satellite-like communications and earth-observation services over long periods of time without interruption. And at lower cost than satellites. The Airbus Zephyr-S has a wingspan of 25 metres (82 feet) and weighs under 75 kilograms (165 pounds). Zephyrs are powered by the sun during the day, which also recharges its lithium-sulphur batteries to power it by night. Current payload capabilities include high-definition optical / infrared video, aeronautical information service (AIS), narrowband mobile communications, and 100 megabits per second broadcast. The future Zephyr-T will have a 32-metre wingspan, weigh 140 kg, and add radar, LIDAR (Light Detection and Ranging), electronic support measures (ESM), electronic intelligence (ELINT), and broadband comms. Zephyr-S flights in the future will operate from the Wyndham airfield in Western Australia. They are also equipped with Automatic dependent surveillance - broadcast (ADS-B) and use the callsign “HBAL” for identification by other aircraft. Loon has collected millions of kilometres of wind data, and applies machine-learning techniques to predict wind directions at various altitudes. In 2016, a Loon balloon remained aloft for nearly 100 days, making nearly 20,000 adjustments to hover above the country. A year later, this data was used to provide telecoms service when Chimbote, Peru was ravaged by floods. Loon’s first commercial project, to launch this year, aims to provide internet connectivity to parts of rural Kenya in partnership with the Telekom LTE network. SONS OF SOLAR IMPULSE Airbus calls the Zephyr-S a high-altitude pseudo-satellite (HAPS), “with the capabilities of a satellite and the flexibility of a UAV,” according to Jana Rosenmann, senior vice president of unmanned aerial systems at Airbus. This summer, on its maiden voyage, the Zephyr-S established a new world record for the longest continuous flight in earth’s atmosphere – 25 days, 23 hours, 7 minutes at 70,000 feet. At the Farnborough International Airshow, a collaboration of BAE Systems and RPAS specialists Prismatic, announced that its planned PHASA-35 solar-powered, high- altitude aircraft is expected to be able to stay airborne for an entire year. First deliveries are anticipated for 2020-21. How far can you throw a drone? The Airbus Zephyr, weighing less than 75 kilograms (165 pounds), can be launched from the shoulders of three or four stout individuals. No runway is required. Airbus image. HIGHER AIRSPACE PRINCIPLES The Upper Airspace Working Group (UAWG), an industry organization within the Aerospace Industries Association (AIA), recommends these key principles for developing risk- and performance-based regulatory initiatives for safe and orderly expansion of “higher airspace” operations: Uniform airspace organization and management principles will need to be applicable to all regions. Global principles will be applicable at all levels of density and will affect total traffic volume. Airspace management processes will need to accommodate diverse and dynamic flight trajectories and provide optimum system solutions; When conditions require that different types of traffic be segregated by airspace organization, the size, shape and time regulation of that airspace will be set to minimize the impact on all operations equitably; Complexity of operations may pose limitations on the degree of flexibility; Airspace use will be coordinated and monitored in order to accommodate the conflicting legitimate requirements of all users minimizing constraints on operations; For operations lasting longer than 24 hours, airspace reservations will be expected and planned in advance with changes made dynamically whenever possible. As occurs today, the system will also accommodate unplanned requirements; Structured route systems will be applied only where required to enhance capacity or to avoid areas where access has been limited or where hazardous conditions exist. Otherwise, airspace management principles will remain as flexible as practicable. 26 | ICAO JOURNAL | ISSUE 1 | 2019 INNOVATIONREGULATOR ENGAGEMENT IN THE NEW AGE OF AVIATION INNOVATION The UK CAA is changing its approach to new products and services coming to market Ask a pilot about what matters to them when operating internationally and you are likely to hear about the importance of a known environment in which the same things happen the same way everywhere all the time. ICAO’s traditional key role is to secure this international standard. Ask innovators what matters to them and they speak of the same approval standards for their new product or business being applicable as widely as possible across the World. Harmonised international standards are a pathway to a single approved design being offered immediately to the largest possible marketplace at the lowest possible entry price. Harmonisation of standards for a global aviation market is another key ICAO role. And what about States? States can see how good, up to date, global standards can help their citizens to more quickly enjoy better safety, better security, a quieter and cleaner environment, fewer delays, better travel connectivity, increasing trading opportunities. Image courtesy Royal Aeronautical Society/Kaktus Digital www.ICAO.int | 27 FUTURE AVIATION REGULATIONNext >