< PreviousRECOMMENDATIONS To guide the work of ICAO in the near-term and to adapt its work programme in the next triennium (2020-2022) in light of the Future of Aviation, the 2018 COSM recommended the following: BROADENING OF ARRANGEMENTS WITH OTHER INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS That a plan be proposed for consideration by the 40 th Assembly to engage in arrangements with other International Organizations that contribute to the technical work programme of ICAO in light of emerging modes of aerospace transport, including commercial space. The COSM participants agreed that the Convention on International Civil Aviation has sufficient flexibility to accommodate an expansion of work within the ICAO mandate to include commercial space. However, it was also recognized that the Organization, at present, does not have the expertise, knowledge or experience in this area and would need to expand its partnerships to make a meaningful contribution. 1. UAS OPERATIONS That the Secretariat include expanded activities within the next Triennial Business Plan to support and accelerate the development of regulatory frameworks for UAS operations. To facilitate this expansion of ICAO’s work programme, an innovative and flexible approach should be adopted, taking into account ongoing development at national, regional and international levels. The COSM agreed that there is a need to increase the rate of regulatory development to support the safe and socially responsible operation of UAS. 3. OPERATIONS ABOVE FLIGHT LEVEL 600 That the Secretariat include expanded activities within the next Triennial Business Plan to support the development of regulatory frameworks for operations above Flight Level 600, given the emergence of remotely piloted aircraft, unmanned balloons and other operations at these altitudes. (See “High Fliers,” page 24.) COUNCIL ENGAGEMENT IN NEW AND EMERGING ISSUES That the Council’s Implementation Strategic and Planning Group (ISPG) develop a modus operandi to more actively engage on emerging issues with all relevant stakeholders, including States, industry and academia for consideration by Council in its 217 th Session. 4. 42. 8 | ICAO JOURNAL | ISSUE 1 | 2019 STRATEGY & PLANNINGThe President of the Council, Dr. Olumuyiwa Benard Aliu, emphasized that ICAO’s Standards-making process would need to keep up with the pace of technological development in civil aviation, but also pointed out the paradox that many States were having difficulties in implementing ICAO Standards and Recommended Practices (SARPs) at the present rate of Annex amendments. ICAO may need new tools in the future, he said, to facilitate implementation, such as publishing “best practices.” While ICAO Standards are intended for international operations, the President also prompted the COSM participants to consider whether this paradigm may need to shift in the future. The Aviation of the Future theme was addressed at CSOM2018 through focussed discussions and team activities that addressed an overview of related technological challenges and opportunities, ICAO’s mandate and regulatory challenges, partnerships, and the future of work in the aviation sector. Industry representatives expressed that the pace of development is faster today than ever before in the history of civil aviation. For ICAO to respond appropriately, the Organization will need to focus on clearly defining the challenges associated with the introduction of new technologies; transition to a more data-driven approach to developing and prioritizing its work programmes; and look to the use of performance-based Standards as a means of keeping pace with development. The participants also noted that ICAO should not lose sight of the need for prescriptive Standards in some areas. The President mentioned that emergence of new technologies in the aviation sector was not a new issue and cited the experience gained by ICAO in using smart regulatory approaches to adapt to change. This approach strikes a balance between prescriptive and performance- based approaches, and has been used in the past to support the rapid emergence of technology and foster the advancement of industry, such as the performance-based approach used in Annex 8 – Airworthiness. In its session on Future of Work in the Aviation Sector, the COSM benefited greatly by an impromptu panel of young boys and girls who provided their insights into their career goals and possible aspirations to pursue a future as an aviation professional. Council Members supported that to attract the next generation of aviation professionals, aviation would need to reach out to young people as early as possible during their education, and that this responsibility is both a collective and individual responsibility for all involved in civil aviation. They also underscored that this is not the first time that the Organization has faced significant changes in civil aviation, and that lessons learned over the history of ICAO can be applied to civil aviation’s future challenges. The Convention on International Civil Aviation has proven to be remarkably robust and is constructed in a manner that allows sufficient flexibility to adjust the organizational work programme when needed. It was also noted, however, that ICAO will need to find new ways of working to adapt to the rapid pace of technological development and the ever-increasing needs of the Member States. Expanding the existing partnerships and a proactive engagement with industry, to keep pace with technological change, will be essential. At its latest Offsite Strategy Meeting, the Council and Senior Secretariat staff explored how ICAO should respond to rapid technological changes, including the emergence of new modes of aerospace transport. “ The Organization will need to find new ways of working to adapt to the rapid pace of technological development … ”“Technological innovations in unmanned aircraft systems, supersonic aircraft, operations above FL 600, and commercial space flights, to name but a few emerging sectors, will create wonderful new opportunities for the Next Generation of Aviation Professionals – and the travelling public they will serve – but will also bring with it significant challenges, as we together look for ways to safely integrate this new traffic into ever more congested airspace,” ANC President Hurley told delegates to AN-Conf/13. “This Conference is an essential element in reaching out to you ahead of next year’s Assembly, to find ways that we can build a shared situational awareness of the challenges and opportunities ahead, and how best to prioritize our limited resources so as to build a better future, together, for aviation and our travelling public.” ANB Director Creamer explained: “We essentially pre-positioned the technical dialogue which traditionally would have occurred in the Assembly’s Technical Commission. We asked the States to move it forward a year and put it in the Air Navigation Conference so we could build a work program around their aspirations and then ask the Council to provide us with the resources for the priority items.” Next steps: Recommendations from the Conference go to the ANC. The Commission will make recommendations by spring to the ICAO Council, and the Council in the course of its summer budget deliberations will decide how much of the work program it wants to address. Here are a few highlights from the Conference: STABILITY IS GOOD “What we heard at the conference is that States don’t want to see major changes in the plan from triennium to triennium. 13 TH AIR NAVIGATION CONFERENCE SETS STAGE FOR 40 TH ASSEMBLY THE FUTURE OF AIR NAVIGATION The 13th ICAO Air Navigation Conference in Montréal hosted more than 1,000 participants from 112 Member States and 32 international organizations. The theme of the conference was “From Development to Implementation,” encompassing implementation of operational concepts, roadmaps and technologies. Participants discussed a wide range of topics, including revised policies and targets for the ICAO Global Aviation Safety Plan (GASP), new business case tools relating to infrastructure modernization projects and other revisions to the ICAO Global Air Navigation Plan (GANP), State endorsement of an International Trust Framework to bolster the security of future digital air transport requirements, and a new global approach to cost-effective safety collaboration. ICAO Journal Editor Rick Adams spoke with ICAO Air Navigation Commission (ANC) President, Capt. Claude Hurley, and Mr. Stephen Creamer, Director of the ICAO Air Navigation Bureau (ANB), following the 10-day event. Here are a few excerpts from their conversation. Some of the more than 1,000 participants at the 13th ICAO Air Navigation Conference in Montréal. “The recommendations here can bring measurable improvements to aviation safety, efficiency, capacity, security and the environment in a globally harmonized way.” - Capt. Claude Hurley, President, ICAO Air Navigation Commission 10 | ICAO JOURNAL | ISSUE 1 | 2019 THE FUTURE OF AIR NAVIGATIONas opposed to printing a document once and waiting three years to update it again.” INTEGRATING RISK MANAGEMENT “Throughout, there was a thread of connectivity between safety and security in terms of integrated risk management. That’s going to require us to look inside ICAO, how we can better address these risks that have multiple dimensions to them. “One example is in 2017 when carriage of laptops was banned on airplanes because they were thought to be a security risk. Passengers had to check them in the hold, so they became a cargo risk – a security risk morphs into a safety risk.” SEEKING CYBER TRUST “A big win was endorsement that ICAO should work toward developing a trust framework for cyber resilience, establishing a formal project involving States, international organizations and relevant stakeholders for the urgent and transparent development of a globally harmonized aviation trust framework. Priority should be given to governance principles, legal status, and setting out how this can work with a global internet that’s properly protected and has in its core issuance of authentication through the directors general for civil aviation, a country- specific approval process.” THE GASOS OVERSIGHT REVOLUTION “The Global Aviation Safety Oversight System is a pretty revolutionary concept, ICAO recognizing a formal delegation of a responsibility by a State to a service provider to act on its behalf in doing its safety oversight duty. The first component is for ICAO to make clear how to delegate safety oversight responsibility within a State so it’s clear the State remains responsible for the safety oversight of activities emanating from the State, creating a tangible, understandable and legally defensible delegation of some of that activity to another entity, in this case a regional oversight safety organization. A companion to that is finding a way to recognize the regional safety oversight organization as capable of doing that work on behalf of the State.” “All of this work builds on our experience to-date, including work with EASA and the European Union where they are providing airworthiness oversight and other functions on behalf of the EU Member States.” FIND OUR VOICES “The close collaboration between the Commission and the ICAO Secretariat ahead of the Conference was very useful in the Commission’s review. This was meant to be the start of a conversation with the States to engage and to tell us if we’re on the right path. For all of us to find our voice and to speak up with our opinions – whether we’re from Industry or States – is key to ICAO getting early feedback on any proposals so that we, together, can build a shared situational awareness on any potential implementation challenges, and for us then to build consensus on how best to tackle these challenges together.” Videos of the entire AN-Conf/13 proceedings, presentations, conference papers and more are available on the ICAO website: https://www.icao.int/ Meetings/anconf13/Pages/default.aspx They’re making long-term budget and training decisions that they don’t want disturbed by some massive shift that they aren’t in a position to react to. Give States time to plan and invest properly, help them understand how the national planning interacts with regional planning and feeds into the global outcomes that are laid out in the new GASP and GANP. “The largest part of what’s drafted in the GASP and the GANP are performance targets. We have to learn how to measure together and then normalize that measuring process so the comparisons are valid and States can adjust their national plans to improve the performance in the various areas.” MORE COMPREHENSION, AGILITY “We heard a lot from the States that they’re feeling they don’t have enough comprehension of the intent of the global plans to properly integrate them into their national plans. We’re always looking for more in the way of implementation support from the regions or through training, some sort of access to the information as it’s being developed. The call for transparency and inclusiveness in the way we develop standards comes from that. “On the other hand, because we’re struggling with some of the disruptive parts of the industry, they’re telling us they want us to go faster, they want us to be more agile. “We’re thinking about how best to articulate that to the Council through the Commission. We need to do a little bit of introspection into our long-term process to see if there’s a way we can modernize some of our processes, perhaps do more recognition of other people’s development work.” GANP GOING ONLINE “States want us to be more inclusive in the development of the GANP. We’re going to expand the overall group that works on the future development, the governance and input on changes. We’re making the technical portion of the GANP an online live resource, an online catalog of the ASBU (Aviation System Block Upgrade) elements, “The challenge for us now is articulating these requirements in a way that is compelling for the Council and the Member States.” - Mr. Stephen Creamer, Director of the ICAO Air Navigation Bureau THE FUTURE OF AIR NAVIGATION www.ICAO.int | 11Future Flight 12 | ICAO JOURNAL | ISSUE 1 | 2019 FUTURE FLIGHTSure ht Photo: Aerion Supersonic Aerion. Boom. Cora. Elevate. PopUp. Spike. Vahana. These are just a few of the emerging names which could revolutionize commercial aviation across the next generation. ICAO Journal Editor Rick Adams offers an overview of the rapid pace of developments in supersonic, urban air transport, single pilot and pilotless aircraft. www.ICAO.int | 13 FUTURE FLIGHTSIt’s possible that this year’s graduating cadre of young cadets could be the last to enjoy full, four-decade careers as traditional commercial airline pilots. By the time they are ready to retire, around 2060, pilot jobs as we currently know them will “start to become obsolete,” according to Richard de Crespigny. He’s the Qantas captain who led a five-pilot team that safely landed a severely crippled A380 in Singapore in 2010. Pilotless aircraft “will eventually be built,” he predicted, perhaps in production by 2040. “Innovative airlines will buy them. Adventurous passengers will fly them.” Boeing is conducting flight tests related to autonomous or reduced-crew civil aircraft in a two-year project at Moses Lake, Washington. The tests include using a modified vehicle for autonomous taxi, autonomous flight algorithms in a simulator, flight tests of an artificial intelligence (AI)-based system in a Cessna Caravan, plus engine start, pushback, taxi, manoeuver and takeoff roll using a Boeing 787 Dreamliner technology testbed. The objective is to determine if such aircraft could be operated for freight or passenger- carrying missions with the same levels of safety as current manned aircraft. “A pilotless airliner is going to come; it’s just a question of when,” said James Albaugh – in 2011 when he was president and CEO of Boeing Commercial Airlines. “You’ll see it in freighters first, over water probably, landing very close to the shore.” Sixteen years ago in 2002, Craig J. Mundie, then chief research and strategy officer for Microsoft (now senior advisor to the CEO), made a $2,000 public wager with Eric Schmidt, then CEO of Google, that “by 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes.” Mundie’s logic was that “if we stay on this Moore’s law kick – (computers) will be about 4,000 times more powerful,” adding that “with computers increasingly a part of critical infrastructure, the industry is going to have to focus a lot more on making machines that just don’t fail.” Schmidt’s contrary argument claimed “the training and timing around handling emergencies such as engine failure at rotation are not going to be transferrable to autopilots and machines.” “We are quite confident that technologically, the toolkit is filled. With respect to a commercial airplane, there is no doubt in our minds that we can solve the problem of autonomous flight,” stated John Tracy, Boeing’s chief technology Pilotless aircraft “ will eventually be built … Innovative airlines will buy them. Adventurous passengers will fly them. ” Capt. Richard de Crespigny, Qantas 14 | ICAO JOURNAL | ISSUE 1 | 2019 FUTURE FLIGHTSofficer, now retired, two years ago. “It’s a question of certification procedures, regulatory requirements and, even more significantly, public perception.” “The future pilot will still be needed, but he or she will sit in an office flying and managing the aircraft from the ground like the drone pilots already do,” said Capt. Tilmann Gabriel, chairman of the International Pilot Training Association (IPTA), which assists ICAO with expertise in developing training and simulation guidance. Not surprisingly, many experts believe commercial airliners will never go pilotless. What happens if the computer flying the plane malfunctions? According to NASA data, an airplane system malfunction occurs on 20% of flights, Moreover, AI would follow “by the book” rules-based judgments and might not be able to make human-type “generative intelligence” decisions such as the emergency ditching in the Hudson River by Capt. Chesley Sullenberger. “Humans are particularly good at adaptive problem- solving and discovery, areas where there has been little machine intelligence progress,” explained Michael Feary, a research scientist at NASA Ames Research Center. Scenarios of “cascading failures” occur many times, noted Keith Hagy, the Air Line Pilots Association (ALPA) director of engineering and safety. “Those are the kind of abnormal situations when you really need a pilot on board with that judgment and experience and to make decisions.” A SKEPTICAL PUBLIC “The issue has never been could you automate an airplane and fly it autonomously?” said Dr. R. John Hansman, professor of aeronautics and astronautics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Director of the MIT International Center for Air Transportation. “The issue is could you put paying customers in the back of that airplane?” A majority of people, 54%, said they would not fly in a pilotless plane (even if the ticket price was cheaper), according to a UBS survey last year. Only 17% said they would, though this percentage increased for those with higher Volocopter – electric, autonomous, German (Left), London to Paris in an hour via Lilium (Top), Airbus Vahana concept (Middle), Embraer X’s DreamMaker (Bottom) www.ICAO.int | 15 FUTURE FLIGHTSeducations and incomes. In the 25-34 age group, 30% responded that they were very likely or somewhat likely to fly in an autonomous airliner (versus 40% who were unlikely or very unlikely to do so). In the 55- 64 bracket, the unlikely group rose to 60% with only 10% likely or unlikely. Americans are far more interested with 27% very/somewhat likely to fly in a pilotless plane, compared with only 15% for respondents from the UK, France and Germany. The 8,000 people surveyed are more inclined to try a driverless car (30%), though the research was conducted before a pedestrian was killed by an Uber test vehicle operating in autonomous mode. In a Travelzoo survey, 38% said they would prefer a Star Trek-style teleporter (at the moment, a fictional device). The UBS report claimed the aviation industry could save up to $35 billion a year by eliminating pilots in the cockpit: more than $26 billion in pilot salaries, benefits and training costs, $3 billion for business aviation, $2.1 billion for civil helicopters, over $1 billion in fuel savings from computer-driven flight optimisation, plus $3 billion from lower insurance premiums. HOW ABOUT ONE PILOT? “The more disruptive approach is to say maybe we can reduce the crew needs for our future aircraft,” Airbus chief technology officer Paul Eremenko said recently. “We’re pursuing single-pilot operation as a potential option and a lot of the technologies needed to make that happen have also put us on the path towards unpiloted operation.” Boeing Research and Technology vice president Charles Toups said it may take a “couple of decades” to persuade passengers to take a single-pilot jet, suggesting public support for the concept would start with proliferation of self-driving cars. “They are going to remove the co-pilot,” stated Stephen Rice, a human factors professor at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical Will ground-based operators replace airline co-pilots? “ The future pilot will still be needed, but he or she will sit in an office flying and managing the aircraft from the ground like the drone pilots already do. ” Capt. Tilmann Gabriel, chairman, International Pilot Training Association (IPTA) 16 | ICAO JOURNAL | ISSUE 1 | 2019 FUTURE FLIGHTSUniversity. “The manufacturers like the idea because they can redesign the cockpit. The airlines I’ve spoken to like the idea because it saves costs in the same way that removing the third person from the cockpit did decades ago.” To support a single-pilot cockpit, French Air and Space Academy (AAE) and NASA Ames / Rockwell Collins research recommends a ground-based operator, much like today’s military drone operators who control aircraft from half a world away. According to Jean Broquet, an AAE member and former designer of automated satellite control systems, Pilot-Ground operators (PGs), would be qualified as pilots, including holding a type rating (there goes some of those personnel and training cost savings.) The AAE estimates one PG can simultaneously manage up to five flights in short- to medium-haul operations. In the NASA “super-dispatcher” concept, a trained pilot could remotely oversee the flights of as many as a dozen airplanes at once. If an airborne pilot needed help because of equipment malfunction or medical emergency, the ground-based aviator could help fly the airplane. The airline flight crews who participated in their single-pilot simulator-based research “weren’t as negative as I thought they would be,” said NASA research psychologist Walter Johnson. “They don’t want to fly alone, but what I got from them was that, [with a copilot on the ground], it probably would work.” “The main issue for single-pilot operations is cybersecurity,” said Joel B. Lachter, NASA computer scientist. “In order for it to be done safely, automation or ground operators would need authority to be able to step in in the case of off-nominal issues such as pilot incapacitation. If they can eliminate the cybersecurity threats surrounding those operations, I think it is feasible.” The chief executive of the International Air Transport Association (IATA), Alexandre de Juniac, said he is “not convinced by the single-pilot issue. I don’t see the plus. I do see the minus.” FLYING ABOVE TRAFFIC JAMS Mashups of technology companies, automotive companies, traditional aviation OEMs and startups are attempting to create a new market niche known as “urban air mobility” (UAM), aka “flying cars” or “flying taxis.” Google is testing a two-person, electric- powered air taxi in New Zealand known as Cora, which uses three onboard computers to calculate its flight path – no pilot necessary – with 12 lift fans for vertical takeoff and horizontal flight, and with a parachute (similar to the Cirrus fixed-wing aircraft). Top speed 93 mph. Altitude 3,000 feet. Range 62 miles. German startup Lilium, which has recruited key personnel from Airbus and Tesla, is touting a five-seat vertical takeoff and landing (VTOL) electric jet which could fly in excess of 180 mph and transit from London to Paris in an hour. First “functional crewed flight” is expected by next year and the on-demand air taxi service by 2025. Airbus has multiple short-haul aircraft ventures spinning up. Project Vahana from their Silicon Valley-based A3 research centre is a self-piloted single- passenger VTOL with automated obstacle detection; a production model is targeted for 2020. The CityAirbus with four ducted fans would seat 3-4, operated by a single pilot (but evolving to fully autonomous operation in the future) – look for a demonstrator and a piloted test flight in 2019. Airbus is also working with Audi on the Pop.Up Next driverless car / drone / air taxi. A Dutch company unveiled the first production model PAL-V Liberty flying car at the Geneva, Switzerland motor show in March. The $615,000 two-engine, two-seater can drive up to 105 mph on three wheels or fly at 112 mph using a rear-mounted propeller, traversing up to 300 miles on unleaded gasoline. Pal-V requires a short runway to takeoff and land, and operators will have to qualify as gyroplane pilots (there’s an unpowered rotor which serves as a parachute). Bell Helicopter (Fort Worth, Texas) is partnered with ride-share company Uber in a flying taxi initiative called Elevate, scheduled to debut in Dallas-Fort Worth, Los Angeles and Dubai in 2020. Initially, traditional pilots will be required, but they are hoping that “pilot augmentation technology will significantly reduce pilot skill requirements, and this could lead to a commensurate reduction in training time,” similar to an FAA light-sport pilot licence. “Not only must the FAA be convinced, but Spike Aerospace www.ICAO.int | 17 FUTURE FLIGHTSNext >