< PreviousICAO WORLD CIVIL AVIATION REPORTINTERNATIONAL CIVIL AVIATION ORGANIZATION...................................................................................................................................................................180.............................................................................................................................................................................*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth RateAsia and PacificAsia/Pacific top international passenger traffic by route group: 2032 vs. 2012Total international passenger traffic to/from Asia/Pacific and intra Asia/Pacific: history and forecastsSource: ICAOICAO WORLD CIVIL AVIATION REPORTINTERNATIONAL CIVIL AVIATION ORGANIZATION.....................................................................................................................................................................181.............................................................................................................................................................................EuropeEurope top international passenger traffic by route group: 2032 vs. 2012Total international passenger traffic to/from Europe and intra Europe: history and forecasts*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth RateSource: ICAOICAO WORLD CIVIL AVIATION REPORTINTERNATIONAL CIVIL AVIATION ORGANIZATION...................................................................................................................................................................182.............................................................................................................................................................................Latin America and the CaribbeanLatin America and the Caribbean top international passenger traffic by route group: 2032 vs. 2012Total international passenger traffic to/from Latin America and the Caribbean and intra Latin America and the Caribbean: history and forecasts*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth RateSource: ICAOICAO WORLD CIVIL AVIATION REPORTINTERNATIONAL CIVIL AVIATION ORGANIZATION.....................................................................................................................................................................183.............................................................................................................................................................................Middle EastMiddle East top international passenger traffic by route group: 2032 vs. 2012Total international passenger traffic to/from Middle East and intra Middle East: history and forecasts*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth RateSource: ICAOICAO WORLD CIVIL AVIATION REPORTINTERNATIONAL CIVIL AVIATION ORGANIZATION...................................................................................................................................................................184.............................................................................................................................................................................North AmericaNorth America top international passenger traffic by route group: 2032 vs. 2012 Total international passenger traffic to/from North America and intra North America: history and forecasts*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth RateSource: ICAOICAO WORLD CIVIL AVIATION REPORTINTERNATIONAL CIVIL AVIATION ORGANIZATION.....................................................................................................................................................................185.............................................................................................................................................................................*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth RateSource: ICAOWorldWorld top 10 international passenger traffic by route group: 2032 vs. 2012Total international passenger traffic: history and forecastsICAO WORLD CIVIL AVIATION REPORTINTERNATIONAL CIVIL AVIATION ORGANIZATION...................................................................................................................................................................186Europe Total 2.9% 2.6% 2.4% International 2.9% 2.6% 2.4% Domestic 0.2% 0.8% 1.0% Africa Total 1.6% 2.1% 2.2% International 1.6% 2.1% 2.2% Domestic 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% Middle East Total 6.6% 7.1% 6.9% International 6.6% 7.1% 6.9% Domestic 1.4% 0.7% 0.5% Asia and Pacific Total 5.7% 5.1% 4.7% International 5.2% 4.7% 4.3% Domestic 8.7% 7.8% 7.0% North America Total 2.7% 2.5% 2.6% International 3.7% 3.5% 3.4% Domestic 0.8% 0.7% 0.6% Latin America and the Caribbean Total 3.1% 2.9% 2.8% International 3.4% 3.1% 3.0% Domestic 2.0% 1.7% 1.6% WORLD Total scheduled 4.4% 4.3% 4.2% International 4.5% 4.4% 4.2% Domestic 3.9% 4.0% 4.0%Region / Region-pair(Scheduled Services) Cargo traffic results in terms of FTKs 10 Year(2012-2022)30 Year(2012-2042)CAGR20 Year(2012-2032)Summary of Total Cargo Traffic Forecasts by Region of Airline Registration .............................................................................................................................................................................ICAO WORLD CIVIL AVIATION REPORTINTERNATIONAL CIVIL AVIATION ORGANIZATION.....................................................................................................................................................................187.............................................................................................................................................................................Appendix 4 – Forecasting MethodologyAppendix 4 – Forecasting MethodologyData and Model Specification for Passenger and Cargo ForecastA time-series data set of Revenue Passenger Kilometres (RPK) and Freight Tonne Kilometres (FTK) was created for both international and domestic operations at city pair and carrier levels from 1995 to 2012 by compiling: a) actual traffic data reported by States to ICAO (through the Air Transport Reporting Forms A - Air Carrier Traffic, B - On-flight Origin and Destination and C - Traffic by Flight Stage) and published directly by States, the coverage of which was over 90 per cent of air passenger traffic and 95 per cent of freight traffic; and b) estimated traffic data based on the airline schedules published in the Official Airline Guide (OAG), which was used to fill the gaps. The passenger forecasts segments the data into a total of 50 route groups (40 international and 10 domestic). In order to obtain the flexibility of having different elasticity estimates based on income level and market maturity, these 50 route groups were assigned to six different tiers based on the World Bank definitions of low, lower-middle, upper-middle and 1high-income economies (http://data.worldbank.org/about/country-and-lending-groups). Concerning freight forecasts, since nearly 80 per cent of the traffic moves in the East-West trade lane, it was decided to use six regions instead of the 50 route groups. The specification of the appropriate dynamic demand equations followed economic theories and a “general to specific” 2approach that starts with a model which is over parameterised and then simplifies to a more specific form on the basis of statistical tests and the overall explanatory power of the model. After a series of diagnostic tests, the equation selected to predict annual change in passenger traffic for each route group is a function of real GDP per capita and cost of travel:i: tier coefficient index, j: tier index, t: year, r: route group, pc: per capita, Δ: difference between t and t-1ΔlogRPKpc = rtβ (T ΔlogGDPpc) + βΔlog Cost of Travel + dummies i jrt oil rt*i=1, j=161 The 6 tiers are: T1 = both origin and destination are low-income economies; T2 = origin is low-income economies and destination is either lower-middle or upper-middle income economies or vice versa; T3 = origin is high-income economies and destination is low income economies or vice versa; T4 = origin is high-income economies and destination is either lower-middle or upper-middle income economies or vice versa; T5 = both origin and destination are either lower-middle or upper-middle income economies; and T6 = both origin and destination are high-income economies. 2 Explanatory variables considered and tested include gross domestic product (GDP), income, population, travel cost, international trade volumes and employment.As there is no coherent methodology to obtain specific airfare costs, oil prices were used as a proxy for cost of air travel, consistent with recent literature on this topic. In addition, dummy variables are added to the model to take into account the effect of “special” events such as those of September 11th 2001 and the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) outbreak. A panel data analysis using a first difference estimator (i.e. based on difference between year t and year t-1) was used to estimate the passenger traffic equation. This approach best fits the dataset and information available for estimation while allowing for controlling of both time series and cross-sectional aspects of the data. Unlike the passenger demand model, the equation of the freight demand for most of the regions includes real GDP per capita as a sole explanatory variable because the estimated coefficients of oil prices were not statistically significant.logFTK = α + β logGDP t: yearttIndividual ordinary least squares (OLS) regression was used for each region as it performed better than other approaches.ICAO WORLD CIVIL AVIATION REPORTINTERNATIONAL CIVIL AVIATION ORGANIZATION...................................................................................................................................................................188.............................................................................................................................................................................Appendix 5 – New Manuals Published by ICAO(January to June 2016)Manual on Detailed Technical Specifications for the Aeronautical Telecommunication Network (ATN) using ISO/OSI Standards and Protocols – Doc 9880Manual on the Oversight of Fatigue Management Approaches (2nd Edition) – Doc 9966Manual on Electronic Flight Bags (EFB) – Doc 10020Manual on Protection of Safety Information, Part I — Protection of Accident and Incident Investigation Records – Doc 10053Manual on Air Traffic Controller Competency-based Training and Assessment – Doc 10056Manual on Air Traffic Safety Electronics Personnel Competency-based Training and Assessment – Doc 10057Manual on the Investigation of Cabin Safety Aspects in Accidents and Incidents – Doc 10062Manual on Monitoring the Application of Performance-based Horizontal Separation Minima – Doc 10063Fatigue Management Guide for Airline Operators (2nd Edition) - ICAO/IATA/IFALPAFatigue Management Guide For Air Traffic Service Providers - ICAO/CANSO/IFATCAFatigue Management Guide for General Aviation Operators of Large and Turbojet Aeroplanes - ICAO/IBAC/FSFThe Manuals can be obtained from the ICAO Store, https://store1.icao.int/ The Fatigue Management Guides can be downloaded free of charge from http://www.icao.int/safety/fatiguemanagement/Pages/Resources.aspxNext >